Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Asset market downturns, like stock market drops or real estate slumps, can also reduce capital gains tax revenue and other investment ‑related income, lowering state revenue. Conversely, revenues can grow quickly in response to economic expansions or run ups in the stock market.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - Across the budget window (2023-24 to 2025-26), we estimate the budget condition improves by nearly $2  billion relative to the administration ’s projections. This modest improvement reflects our somewhat higher revenue estimates, partially offset by slightly higher projected spending.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - All Other Changes Improve Budget Bottom Line by $2   Billion. Across the rest of the budget, the administration estimates a net improvement of $2  billion to the General Fund bottom line. The  largest component is a $1.5  billion upward revision to the entering fund balance, primarily driven by higher ‑than ‑expected reversions of unspent funds and lower required Proposition  2 (2014) debt payments.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - These gains are not tied to improvements in the state ’s broader economy, which has been lackluster, with elevated unemployment, a stagnant job market outside of government and healthcare, and sluggish consumer spending.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - However, proactive efforts to help improve the amount of information that is available could help the Legislature gain sufficient insight so as to determine which programs to prioritize over others. Are Programs Providing Expected Benefits?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983