California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - To fund its operations, the measure authorizes the commission to levy annual assessments on public benefit AI companies equal to 1 to 2 percent of their California gross revenue. Allows New Civil and Criminal Penalties and Private Enforcement.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: Community College Facilities [Publication Details]

Mar 17, 2026 - This post assesses the Governor’s proposals to fund the second batch of community college capital outlay projects under Proposition 2, an education facilities bond.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5159

The 2026-27 Budget: Community College Facilities

Mar 17, 2026 - As Figure  2 shows, the Governor proposes to fund all ten projects selected by the Chancellor ’s Office. The Governor ’s budget includes $28  million Proposition  2 bond funds for the preliminary plans and working drawings phases of these projects.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5159

The 2026-27 Budget: In-Home Supportive Services

Mar 18, 2026 - Specifically, total IHSS county costs increased by about $630  million in 2017 ‑18 relative to 2016 ‑17. The 2017 IHSS MOE also increased annually by (1)  the counties ’ share of costs from locally negotiated wage increases and (2)  an annual adjustment factor (of as high as 7  percent).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5166

The 2026-27 Budget: Bureau for Private Postsecondary Education

Mar 25, 2026 - Figure 2 BPPE Fund Faces Insolvency Even Under Governor ’s Proposal Projected Fund Condition (In Millions) a 2025 ‑26
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5169

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Governor’s Budget Roughly Balanced on Higher Revenues In November, We Anticipated the State Faced an $18   Billion Deficit. In our November Fiscal Outlook report, we estimated that the state faced an $18  billion budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - This is especially consistent with the 20 18 changes, since professional service firms tend to be classed as “non-tradeable, ” meaning they are often already required to locate near their customer base, and thus tax incentives are unlikely to influence their decision to locate in California.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162