California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The Internet obviously has been a transformative innovation for society and the economy, but early on, financial markets valued dot-com and Internet firms above what their revenue-generating capacity warranted at the time.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget [Publication Details]

Jan 12, 2026 - On January 9, 2026, Governor Newsom’s administration presented its proposed state budget to the California Legislature. In this report, we provide a high-level summary and our initial analysis of the Governor’s budget based on our preliminary review (as of January 10). Assembly Budget Handout (PDF) Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Handout (PDF)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - (We consider a proposal to be “discretionary” if it provides more funding for a program or a service above what is already committed under current law or policy.) After 2026‑27, these proposals would add about $200 million in ongoing spending.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: Cap-and-Invest Expenditure Plan [Publication Details]

Feb 10, 2026 - In this report, we review the Governor’s proposed plan for spending cap-and-invest revenues in 2026-27.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5114

The 2026-27 Budget: Cap-and-Invest Expenditure Plan

Feb 10, 2026 - In light of this, we think the Legislature should carefully consider what types of activities it would like to include in this category —and potentially provide this guidance to the administration in statute, as appropriate —recognizing that this year ’s decisions could serve as a precedent going forward.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5114

The 2026-27 Budget: County Administration and H.R. 1 Implementation

Mar 5, 2026 - Without a methodology that links funding to workload, funding could become insufficient or exceed what is required for efficient operations without a clear way of assessing what adjustments are needed.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5149

The 2026-27 Budget: Child Welfare

Mar 3, 2026 - Some questions for the Legislature to consider as it oversees these programs include: What are the major outputs, outcomes, and impacts of the funding to date? What do youth and families view as the most notable results or effects of the funding?
https://lao.ca.gov/publications/report/5147