California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Overview of Major Impacts of H.R. 1 – One Big Beautiful Bill Act [Publication Details]

Aug 20, 2025 - Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 7 on Accountability and Oversight
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5067

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - The Governor ’s budget also maintains a $7  billion withdrawal from the BSA in 2025-26. If a May Revision windfall exceeds the amount needed to fund the true up, we recommend the Legislature use those resources to reduce the size of this withdrawal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

Rethinking California’s Reserve Policy (Panel 2) [Publication Details]

May 7, 2025 - Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 7 on Accountability and Oversight
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5041

Reserves, Proposition 2, and the Budget Stabilization Account (Panel 1) [Publication Details]

May 7, 2025 - Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 7 on Accountability and Oversight
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5040

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - Analysis Budget Year Budget Problem $7  Billion Higher Under LAO Revenue and Spending Estimates. Under our office ’s revenue and spending projections, and assuming the Governor ’s May Revision policies are adopted, the budget problem for this year is $7  billion larger.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - These choices included about $11  billion in spending ‑related solutions and $15  billion in all other solutions, including $5.5  billion in temporary revenue increases and a $7  billion withdrawal from the state ’s rainy ‑day fund .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - Specifically, our revenue estimates exceed the administration ’s estimates by $5  billion to $7  billion annually from 2026-27 to 2028-29 —differences we consider very minor given the size of the budget and uncertainty in revenue forecasting.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052