How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - The Nasdaq composite, which includes the California headquartered companies Nvidia, Google, Facebook, Apple, AMD, and Broadcom, has doubled since 2023. The meteoric rise in the value of these companies has led to sizable gains for their investors and their employees via stock options, which has led income tax collections to grow at double-digit rates.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - The Nasdaq composite, which includes the California headquartered companies Nvidia, Google, Facebook, Apple, AMD, and Broadcom, has doubled since 2023. The meteoric rise in the value of these companies has led to sizable gains for their investors and their employees via stock options, which has led income tax collections to grow at double-digit rates.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - High Recapture Rate Can be Seen as a Feature … On one hand, high recapture rates can be seen as not a significant issue, and even a sign that the program is working as intended: Companies are incentivized by a tax break if they manage to achieve agreed-upon job and investment targets, but if they fail to do so, the state incurs no expense since the credit is never claimed or is paid back to the state.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

The 2026-27 Budget: In-Home Supportive Services

Mar 18, 2026 - As seen in Figure  3 , IHSS caseload has grown significantly since 2013. Despite slower caseload growth between 2016 ‑17 and 2020 ‑21 (the caseload continued to grow during this period, just at a slower than usual rate).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5166

The 2026-27 Budget: Child Welfare

Mar 3, 2026 - The most recent cost estimates we have seen assume a phased implementation approach over three years (2027-28 to 2029-30). Has the administration considered a more gradual or differently structured phase-in of the new rates that could reduce costs at least in the early years of implementation?
https://lao.ca.gov/publications/report/5147

California Labor Market Showing Broad Signs of Weakness [EconTax Blog]

Sep 30, 2025 - According to the monthly business survey, the state added 4,000 jobs in August and the July report was revised down from +15,000 to -300. With net job losses over the past three months, the state 's labor market remains soft and has perhaps weakened slightly.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/839

California Labor Market Showing Broad Signs of Weakness [EconTax Blog]

Sep 30, 2025 - According to the monthly business survey, the state added 4,000 jobs in August and the July report was revised down from +15,000 to -300. With net job losses over the past three months, the state 's labor market remains soft and has perhaps weakened slightly.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/839

Addressing Chronic Vacancies in Prison Mental Health Care

Feb 23, 2026 - The benefits of operating a prison in easier ‑to ‑recruit areas can be seen at SQRC in Marin. SQRC has had more success in hiring mental health staff than most other prisons, resulting in fewer vacancies.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5134

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939