California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - The increase is primarily driven by higher costs in the Medi ‑Cal program, which are projected to exceed January estimates by $10  billion over the three ‑year budget window: roughly $2  billion in 2024 ‑25 and $8  billion in 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/3

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/2

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/1

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - For example, between 2020 ‑21 and 2021 ‑22, the formulas reduced the share of excess capital gains that benefit Proposition  2 by $8  billion. Saving All Excess Capital Gains Would Allow the State to Save More Revenue Peaks.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - Between 2024 ‑25 and 2027 ‑27, HHS programs grow at an average annual rate of 5.1  percent under our projections, compared to 8  percent under the administration ’s estimates. As we have commented in the past, our office has little insight into the components of, or assumptions underlying, the administration ’s projections in HHS.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907