California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Several historically reliable signs suggest the stock market is overheated and at high risk of reversing course into a downturn in the next year or so. Should a stock market downturn occur, income tax revenues would fall considerably.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Overall, without more positive signs from the broader California economy, it is difficult to be highly confident in the recent revenue recovery. Possible Paths to a Broader Economic Recovery. Over the coming months, if California ’s labor market and consumers begin to show signs of a broadening recovery, the state ’s fiscal position is likely to be on better footing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - In the past, these patterns have been a sign that a stock market downturn will occur in the next couple of years. There certainly is some chance that this time is different and such a downturn is not forthcoming.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - For example, we recommend the Legislature: Do Not Suspend the $3  Billion True Up Into the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). The Governor ’s budget proposes suspending a roughly $3  billion true-up deposit that otherwise would be required in 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - Each year, our office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. In this publication we: provide an overview of the 2025-26 budget package, give a brief description of how the budget process unfolded, and then highlight the major features of the budget approved by the Legislature and signed by the Governor.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079/1

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - Each year, our office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. In this publication we: provide an overview of the 2025-26 budget package, give a brief description of how the budget process unfolded, and then highlight the major features of the budget approved by the Legislature and signed by the Governor.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079/2

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan [Publication Details]

Oct 16, 2025 - Each year, our office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. In this publication we: provide an overview of the 2025-26 budget package, give a brief description of how the budget process unfolded, and then highlight the major features of the budget approved by the Legislature and signed by the Governor.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5079