How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - The four major downturns were more severe, with income tax declines ranging from 17 percent to 30 percent (average of 24 percent). Perhaps more concerning, income tax revenues stayed depressed for years following major downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - The four major downturns were more severe, with income tax declines ranging from 17 percent to 30 percent (average of 24 percent). Perhaps more concerning, income tax revenues stayed depressed for years following major downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Throughout the mid-to-late 1990s, the stock market boomed over optimism around the Internet and dot-com start-ups. Strong tax revenue trends from this boom generated large budget surpluses that ultimately gave way to serious deficits once the bubble burst and PIT revenues declined nearly 30  percent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

Home Prices Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Oct 20, 2021 - San Joaquin county, which is increasingly becoming a bedroom community for the Bay Area, has seen growth above 30 percent.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/706

MOU Fiscal Analysis: Bargaining Unit 9 (Professional Engineers)

Jun 27, 2025 - As of June 30, 2023, the state and Unit 9 have set aside $370.8 million to prefund the benefit and the unfunded liability associated with Unit 9 is $3.2 billion. The most recent actuarial valuation of Unit 9 retiree health benefits (as of June 30, 2023) estimates that the Unit 9 funding plan is on track to fully fund Unit 9 retiree health benefits by 2048.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5061

Unit 9 (Professional Engineers) MOU Analysis [Publication Details]

Aug 25, 2022 - Unit 9 (Professional Engineers) MOU Analysis [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4620

Unit 9 (Professional Engineers) MOU Analysis

Aug 25, 2022 - The current MOU between the state and Unit 9 expired June 30, 2022. Under the Ralph C. Dills Act, provisions of an expired MOU generally remain in effect until a successor agreement is ratified. The proposed agreement would be in effect from July 1, 2022 through June 30, 2025.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4620

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 13, 2023 - In the last 30 years, comparable two-quarter declines have occurred only around the Dot-Com Recession and the Great Recession. Similarly, income tax withholding (the largest component of income tax collections) has declined 5 percent so far this year, a stark departure from the double digit growth of the preceding two years.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/774