California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The stock market (S &P 500) has risen 50  percent in the last two years. Most of these gains come from the meteoric rise in the value of a handful of tech companies that investors believe will be major beneficiaries of recent advances in AI.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2021-22 Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 23, 2021 - In September 2020, the Legislature instituted the Main Street Small Business Tax Credit, which provides income or sales tax credits to firms with 100 or fewer employees that added jobs in the second half of 2020.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4452

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2021-22 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2021 - We only plan to update this figure for very significant changes (that is, those greater than $500 million). CDPH = California Department of Public Health; COVID ‑19 = coronavirus disease 2019; CHHS = California Health and Human Services Agency; HHS = Health and Human Services; GARE = Government Alliance on Race and Equity; EMSA = Emergency Medical Services Authority; CalAIM =
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4432/2

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - The largest include: a nearly $800 million reduction to state departments’ operation budgets, proposed to be allocated through departments’ vacancy rates; about $500 million in savings to continue an existing two‑week delay in Medi‑Cal payments; a $500 million reduction to the school facilities aid program; and a $350 million reduction to legislative district projects.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2021-22 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2021 - We only plan to update this figure for very significant changes (that is, those greater than $500 million). ADRC = Aging and Disability Resources Centers; Cal ‑OAR = CalWORKs Outcomes and Accountability Review; IT = information technology; FFPSA = Federal Family First Prevention Services Act; DCSD = Department of Community Services and Development; DDS = Department of
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4432/5