How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - As our office warned last November, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. While there is a chance that this time is different and no such downturn is forthcoming, the risk appears strong enough that we have incorporated it into the state 's revenue outlook.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - As our office warned last November, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. While there is a chance that this time is different and no such downturn is forthcoming, the risk appears strong enough that we have incorporated it into the state 's revenue outlook.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 13, 2023 - Leading Indicators Continue to Offer Warning for Economic Outlook. We cannot say for sure if and when current weaknesses in parts of the economy could spread more broadly. In Outlooks last May and November , however, we discussed how certain economic indicators offered a warning that a broader slowdown could be on the horizon.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/774

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714

Home Prices Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Oct 20, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/706

Proposition 36 [Ballot]

Nov 5, 2024 - Requires Warning of Possible Murder Charges for Selling or Providing Drugs Proposition  36 requires courts to warn people that they could be charged with murder if they sell or provide illegal drugs that kill someone.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Proposition?number=36&year=2024

Drug crimes. [Ballot]

Oct 25, 2023 - Requires Warning of Future Criminal Liability for People Convicted of Drug Distribution. The measure requires courts to warn people convicted of distributing certain illegal drugs (such as fentanyl, heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine) that illegal drugs can be deadly.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2023-023