California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan Update (9/11/24): Managed care organization tax increase corrected in Appendix 1 (Figure 4) and Appendix 2 (Figure 1). Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/3

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan Update (9/11/24): Managed care organization tax increase corrected in Appendix 1 (Figure 4) and Appendix 2 (Figure 1). Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/2

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan Update (9/11/24): Managed care organization tax increase corrected in Appendix 1 (Figure 4) and Appendix 2 (Figure 1). Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/1

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - Significant Changes to Solutions From June 2024 Budget Package Managed Care Organization (MCO) Tax Package. Some of the largest budget solutions in the June budget package involved the MCO tax, a tax on health plans that supports the Medi ‑Cal program.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Loans from the fund could be actively managed to keep liquidity relatively high while managing downside risk. Conclusion There are advantages and disadvantages of California ’s existing revenue structure.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028