How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Income Taxes Tend to Lag Major Market Turns by Up to a Year. State income tax growth typically lags stock market turning points by six to twelve months. Before past downturns, taxes have generally grown briskly, often due to the same stock market run-ups that preeceded the downturn.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Income Taxes Tend to Lag Major Market Turns by Up to a Year. State income tax growth typically lags stock market turning points by six to twelve months. Before past downturns, taxes have generally grown briskly, often due to the same stock market run-ups that preeceded the downturn.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - …But Also Indicates a Possible Trade-Off. However, there is a potential trade-off when considering awarding a credit to an applicant with a higher potential benefit to the state but a lower probability of achieving their milestones, compared to an applicant with a lower benefit but who is more likely to achieve their milestones.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - This, in turn, could prevent the Legislature from grappling with the important risks and trade-offs inherent in their budgeting decisions. Our independent revenue estimates facilitate consideration of these trade-offs in several ways.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

Overview of New Updates to the Cap-and-Invest Program

Dec 9, 2025 - Continued and robust legislative oversight will be key to helping ensure that the cap ‑and ‑invest program operates effectively and balances competing policy trade ‑offs in a way that is consistent with legislative  priorities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5097

The 2026-27 Budget: Community College Facilities

Mar 17, 2026 - In deciding how much funding to allocate, the Legislature faces a basic trade-off. On the one hand, allocating more funding now would allow more projects to begin in 2026-27, avoiding the construction cost escalation associated with waiting until a future year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5159

The 2026-27 Budget: Child Welfare

Mar 3, 2026 - What would be the impact on foster youth and families of a different implementation approach —such as implementing only the new foster care maintenance payment rates but holding off on the strengths building and immediate needs components —while the state addresses its structural deficit?
https://lao.ca.gov/publications/report/5147

The 2026-27 Budget: State Mandate—Disclosure Requirements and Deferral of Property Taxation

Feb 19, 2026 - The Commission determined that Los Angeles County incurred reimbursable costs processing deferment requests and adding the required disclosure to property tax bills. The Commission determined that the county incurred a total amount of about $30,000 in back-year costs (incurred between 2022 and 2024), and about $8,000 in ongoing costs thereafter.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5130

The 2026-27 Budget: Cap-and-Invest Expenditure Plan

Feb 10, 2026 - While this rationale is reasonable, this approach is not without trade ‑offs. Most notably, because including state operations expenditures as part of Tier 1 means they receive first priority for available GGRF, adding new activities to this category can have the effect of gradually “crowding out ” other GGRF ‑funded programs and activities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5114

The 2024-25 Budget: CalFire—Implementation of a 66-Hour Workweek

Mar 19, 2024 - This could allow the department to shorten the workweek without adding such significant new costs. A major drawback to this approach is that maintaining a lower staff ing factor would deny firefighters the benefit of additional capacity to cover time off for vacations, training, and other activities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4886