How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Smaller, short-lived corrections occur frequently, among them the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 2011 U.S. debt celing standoff, the 2015 Chinese growth slowdown, the early pandemic drop in 2020, and the 2025 tariff selloff.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Smaller, short-lived corrections occur frequently, among them the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 2011 U.S. debt celing standoff, the 2015 Chinese growth slowdown, the early pandemic drop in 2020, and the 2025 tariff selloff.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

Home Prices Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Oct 20, 2021 - September 2021 data again show torrid growth in home prices in both California and the rest of the country over the past year: the typical home in California has appreciated 21.8 percent since September 2020, well above the national figure of 18.4 percent.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/706

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

2022-23 Fiscal Outlook Revenue Estimates [EconTax Blog]

Nov 17, 2021 - Along with this surge in assets prices has com e a significant uptick in initial public offerings of California companies. This activity similarly has boosted the incomes of Californians who own or work for these companies, which results in both higher withholding collections and tax payments for capital gains.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/712

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Revenues increased by nearly 30 percent in 2020-21 and another 20 percent in 2021-22. In the course of allocating the historically large surpluses generated by the revenue surge, General Fund spending increased commensurately.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 13, 2023 - In the last 30 years, comparable two-quarter declines have occurred only around the Dot-Com Recession and the Great Recession. Similarly, income tax withholding (the largest component of income tax collections) has declined 5 percent so far this year, a stark departure from the double digit growth of the preceding two years.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/774