California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: California Spending Plan Series [Publication Details]

Oct 16, 2025 - The 2025-26 Budget: California Spending Plan Series [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5105

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Reflecting concerns about the potential effects of tariffs, the budget act enacted in June assumed revenues would decline in 2025 ‑26 and grow modestly in 2026 ‑27. Looking primarily at strong trends in income tax collections since June would suggest a significant upgrade to budget act revenues is warranted.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Although the settle‑up proposal responds to revenue risk in the current year, downside risk to revenues is likely greater in 2026‑27 than it is in 2025‑26. Suspends BSA True ‑Up Deposit for 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - (Modified versions of Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 were also added to the 2025 ‑26 Budget Act , extending the availability of these funds. For more on this please see our forthcoming publication, The 2025 ‑26 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions .)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - The Governor ’s budget proposes suspending a roughly $3  billion true-up deposit that otherwise would be required in 2025-26. We recommend the Legislature not suspend this deposit. Make a Smaller Withdrawal From the BSA.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

Supplemental Report of the 2025-26 Budget Act [Publication Details]

Oct 6, 2025 - Supplemental Report of the 2025-26 Budget Act [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5078

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Revenue Improvement Offset by Higher Costs, 2025 ‑26 Budget Remains Roughly Balanced. Although revenues are running ahead of budget act assumptions, those improvements are roughly offset by spending increases across the budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939