How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Past Stock Market Downturns   The figure below shows past stock market downturns that have affected state revenues. The figures includes corrections (stock market decline of more than 10 percent) and bear markets (decline of more than 20 percent) that lasted more than a few months.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Past Stock Market Downturns   The figure below shows past stock market downturns that have affected state revenues. The figures includes corrections (stock market decline of more than 10 percent) and bear markets (decline of more than 20 percent) that lasted more than a few months.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714

Home Prices Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Oct 20, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/706

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 13, 2023 - Because of this, by combining recent data showing a decline withholding with various other economic data, we are able to arrive at our forecast of a 13 percent decline in income tax revenues in the current year.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/774

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

2022-23 Fiscal Outlook Revenue Estimates [EconTax Blog]

Nov 17, 2021 - The graph below shows how much historical experience suggests revenue could differ from our main forecast. As shown on the figure, this uncertainty is very large by the end of our forecast in 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/712