The 2026-27 Budget: Proposition 98 Guarantee and K-12 Spending Plan

Feb 4, 2026 - Moreover, these estimates exclude the future cost of providing the $5.6   billion payment. Making that payment in next year ’s budget, for example, would increase the deficit to about $32   billion (holding other factors constant).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5110

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Generates $5.6 Billion School and Community College Settle‑Up Obligation in 2025‑26. The State Constitution sets a minimum spending requirement for schools and community colleges. For 2025‑26, this requirement is up $6.9 billion under the administration’s estimates, but the Governor’s budget provides $5.6 billion less than this revised estimate.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: California Community Colleges

Mar 5, 2026 - As we discuss in The 2026‑27 Budget: Proposition 98 Guarantee and K‑12 Spending Plan , the Governor’s budget appropriates $5.6 billion less for schools and community colleges in 2025‑26 than the estimated minimum guarantee in that year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5150

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Monthly Jobs Report (December) [EconTax Blog]

Sep 20, 2022 - This slight improvement contributed to a decline in the state ’s unemployment rate, from 5.6 percent in November to 5.5 percent in December. February Release Will Incorporate Unusually Large Population Adjustment.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/755

Monthly Jobs Report (December) [EconTax Blog]

Sep 20, 2022 - This slight improvement contributed to a decline in the state ’s unemployment rate, from 5.6 percent in November to 5.5 percent in December. February Release Will Incorporate Unusually Large Population Adjustment.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/755

The 2025-26 California Spending Plan: Human Services

Nov 21, 2025 - The spending plan eliminates funding for both activities, resulting in $5.6  million and $3  million General Fund ongoing savings, respectively. Establishes New Requirements for Spending in the Self-Determination Program.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5086/1

The 2026-27 Budget: Proposition 98 Guarantee and K-12 Spending Plan [Publication Details]

Feb 4, 2026 - This brief examines the estimates of the Proposition 98 guarantee in the Governor’s budget and assesses the overall structure of the Governor’s school spending plan. It also examines a few of the larger spending proposals and the proposal to delay a $5.6 billion settle-up payment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5110

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104