What Does the Main Monthly Jobs Report Tell Us?
Payroll Employment Now Lower Than it Was a Year Ago. According to the monthly business survey shown below, the state lost 1,700 jobs in December. The November figure marked the only meanginful jobs increase since May. With December's figure in hand, employment in the state is now lower than it was a year ago, the first year-over-year decline since the pandemic.
What Does the Alternative Household Worker Survey Tell Us?
Household Survey Has Trended More Positive. Since September, the alternative survey of household employment has held steady, a more positive assessment than the main business survey. In December, the survey reported 38,000 additional employed workers in the labor force, with a slight decrease in the number of unemployed workers. This slight improvement contributed to a decline in the state’s unemployment rate, from 5.6 percent in November to 5.5 percent in December.
February Release Will Incorporate Unusually Large Population Adjustment. The household survey is revised each January to match updated population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Typically, these adjustments are relatively minor and do not meaningfully affect interpretations of the state's labor market. This year's estimate, however, includes a substantial reduction in total U.S. population due to lower net international migration stemming from federal immigration and deportation efforts. Although the revision is unlikely to recast recent month-to-month trends, we will assess the state's labor market closely once the revised population estimates are built into the monthly household survey.