California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - For example, we recommend the Legislature: Do Not Suspend the $3  Billion True Up Into the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). The Governor ’s budget proposes suspending a roughly $3  billion true-up deposit that otherwise would be required in 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - The administration projects the budget faces a roughly $3  billion deficit. This is lower than our November Fiscal Outlook estimate of an $18  billion deficit, for two offsetting reasons. First, and most importantly, the administration ’s revenue estimate is considerably higher than ours because it does not incorporate the strong risk of a stock market downturn.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Figure 3 General Fund Condition Under Fiscal Outlook (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - The May Revision reduces planned base cuts from 7.95  percent, as agreed to in last year ’s budget, to 3  percent. This change increases ongoing General Fund costs by $267  million for UC and $231  million for CSU.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2021-22 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Aug 30, 2021 - The 2021-22 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit The 2021-22 California Spending Plan The State Appropriations Limit In the late 1970s, voters passed Proposition  4 (1979), which added Article XIIIB to the State Constitution.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4449

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - Figure  3 provides a broader perspective on changes in long-term spending across major programs —largely reflecting the May Revision ’s ongoing solutions. (However, the figure also captures the effects of updated assumptions and estimates.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052