California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - This differs from the approach taken by the Governor. While the Governor ’s budget describes the financial markets as a leading risk to the budget and assumes that stock market appreciation slows, it does not explicitly factor the risk of a market downturn into its revenue estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

October Tax Collections [EconTax Blog]

Nov 17, 2022 - The October variance instead arises from a timing issue related to the newly created   elective pass-through entity (PTE) tax . The administration anticipated a large amount of income tax refunds ($9.7 billion) would be paid in October, related to delayed claiming of credits for elective PTE payments for tax year 2021.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/761

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The state solved a $27  billion deficit in 2023 ‑24, a $55  billion deficit in 2024 ‑25, and a $15  billion deficit in 2025 ‑26 (in addition to roughly $28  billion in proactive budget ‑balancing actions taken the year before).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714

Home Prices Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Oct 20, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/706

California labor law violations. [Ballot]

Nov 23, 2021 - Creating a point of contact for public complaints about actions taken by the Labor Commissioner. Requiring the Labor Commissioner to be a party in all wage claims, including those where its decisions are appealed to the courts.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2021-027

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 13, 2023 - In the last 30 years, comparable two-quarter declines have occurred only around the Dot-Com Recession and the Great Recession. Similarly, income tax withholding (the largest component of income tax collections) has declined 5 percent so far this year, a stark departure from the double digit growth of the preceding two years.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/774