California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - If these actions were all counted as policy choices, rather than baseline changes, the resulting budget problem would be $58 billion. We Estimate the Net Difference Between LAO and Administration Budget Problems Is About $10   Billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This is about $5  billion larger than the budget problem anticipated by the administration in June. Figure  3 provides our estimates of the General Fund condition, including our estimate of the budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - Appendix 4, Figure 7 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Resources and Environment General Fund (In Millions) Emergency surge (helitanker contract component) $45 Clean Energy Reliability Investment Plan (SB 846) 100 Diablo Canyon land use planning — Coastal resilience SB 1 implementation 55 Clean Cars 4 All and other equity (ZEV
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update Deficit Update Under LAO Revenue Update, Budget Problem Grows by $15  Billion The state already faces a significant deficit this year — we estimate it totaled $58 billion under the administration’s revenue forecast at the time the Governor’s budget was proposed in January.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - Our recent revenue post suggests an improvement in revenues of around $5 billion relative to the Governor’s budget estimates. Under the state’s constitutional budget formulas, a revenue increase of this magnitude would translate, very roughly, into a $2.5 billion improvement in the budget bottom line.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - In January, we estimated that the budget problem under the administration ’s assumptions was $58  billion. The budget problem is now slightly lower —$55  billion. There are four notable factors contributing to this difference.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902