How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Revenues regained their nominal levels in 55 months after the dot-com bubble, 53 months following the global financial crisis, and 40 months after the 2022 rate hike drawdown. Multi-year revenue declines amplify the strain on the state budget during major market downturns.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Revenues regained their nominal levels in 55 months after the dot-com bubble, 53 months following the global financial crisis, and 40 months after the 2022 rate hike drawdown. Multi-year revenue declines amplify the strain on the state budget during major market downturns.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2026-27 Budget: K-12 Proposals

Feb 19, 2026 - From 2022 ‑23 through 2024 ‑25, the state appropriation remained at $4  billion annually, while the Tier 1 rate and overall Tier 1 TK ‑6 attendance increased. As a result, funding available for Tier 2 rates decreased.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5131

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Operating Surplus of $5 Billion in 2022 ‑23. In addition to the factors described above, which are revisions to the 2021 ‑22 Budget Act , our outlook anticipates the state will have an additional $5.2 billion operating surplus in 2022 ‑23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 13, 2023 - Consistent with recent deterioration in tax collections, our forecast anticipates big three revenues will decline 11 percent in 2022-23. The bulk of this decline is attributable to the personal income tax.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/774

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714