The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary Not Safe to Bet Artificial Intelligence ( AI) Fueled Exuberance Is Sustainable. Both the California and U.S. economies currently face significant headwinds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - Inflation Risk Is Really a Revenue Risk Although high inflation often is most associated with rising prices and a higher cost of living, from a state budget perspective, the overriding worry is on the revenue side.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

A Framework for Allocating Federal Recovery Funds

May 4, 2021 - This also would allow the Legislature to consider how the state ’s plan would interact with future potential federal action (such as the Biden Administration ’s infrastructure proposal). Other Considerations.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4422

The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 17, 2021 - (Our estimates do not account for potential interactions with the state appropriations limit. The nearby box explains how the limit could affect school funding.) The State Appropriations Limit and School Funding Constitution Establishes State Appropriations Limit (SAL).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4473

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - These challenges would not be short-lived either. After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 16, 2022 - Because of the way school district limits interact with the state’s limit, excluding this spending results in dollar‑for‑dollar reductions in appropriations subject to the limit at the state level. Counts Certain IT Project Costs as Excluded.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4598

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 10, 2021 - Conclusion The pandemic has disrupted the lives and livelihoods of millions of Californians and continues to take the lives of thousands of Californians each month. In the spring of 2020, the Legislature faced an unprecedented challenge to respond to the pandemic and adopt a budget in the face of unprecedented economic uncertainty.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4309

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - As we discuss later in this brief, the May Revision maintains a cost ‑of ‑living adjustment (COLA) and other spending increases for schools and community colleges despite the drop in funding. Baseline Spending Higher by $12   Billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - A person saving for retirement does not know how long they will live or exactly what their expenses will be in retirement, but they nonetheless must plan for this eventuality by making the best possible choices in the meantime.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028