California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

October Tax Collections [EconTax Blog]

Nov 17, 2022 - The October variance instead arises from a timing issue related to the newly created   elective pass-through entity (PTE) tax . The administration anticipated a large amount of income tax refunds ($9.7 billion) would be paid in October, related to delayed claiming of credits for elective PTE payments for tax year 2021.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/761

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - However, our Fiscal Outlook revenue forecast, shown in Figure  2 , reflects a smaller, temporary upgrade which reverses beginning in 2026 ‑ 27 —resulting in 2026 ‑27 revenues being in line with budget act estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - To fund its operations, the measure authorizes the commission to levy annual assessments on public benefit AI companies equal to 1 to 2 percent of their California gross revenue. Allows New Civil and Criminal Penalties and Private Enforcement.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714

The 2026-27 Budget: Community College Facilities [Publication Details]

Mar 17, 2026 - This post assesses the Governor’s proposals to fund the second batch of community college capital outlay projects under Proposition 2, an education facilities bond.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5159

The 2026-27 Budget: Community College Facilities

Mar 17, 2026 - As Figure  2 shows, the Governor proposes to fund all ten projects selected by the Chancellor ’s Office. The Governor ’s budget includes $28  million Proposition  2 bond funds for the preliminary plans and working drawings phases of these projects.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5159

Home Prices Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Oct 20, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/706