Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - (In fact, Figure  7 likely overstates California ’s reserve balances compared to other states because the data appears to include the SFEU in the state ’s rainy day fund balances, although it is not a true rainy day fund.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget $3,135 $4,677 BCH = Secretary for Business, Consumer Services, and Housing Agency; HHAPP = Homeless Housing, Assistance, and Prevention Program; FHC = Family Homelessness Challenge Grants; BSCC  =  Board of State and Community Corrections; CalFire = California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection; CalRecycle = California Department of
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825/1

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy [Publication Details]

Apr 10, 2025 - Reserves allow the state to ensure stable funding for its services over time, even when revenue fluctuates unpredictably. Over the last few years, the state has indeed experienced significant fluctuations—large surpluses followed by significant deficits. This volatility has prompted interest in changes to the state’s reserve policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Introduction Every year, our office publishes the Fiscal Outlook in anticipation of the upcoming budget season. This report gives the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state’s budget condition with the goal of helping lawmakers prepare for the 2025‑26 budget process.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Despite Fiscal Forecasting Uncertainties, Multiyear Budget Planning Essential

May 27, 2021 - The value of doing multiyear budget estimates is evident when considering the role they can play in budget development. When developing our main forecasts, both our office and DOF make their best estimate, aiming for the median scenario.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4443

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - But since macroeconomic dynamics are multifaceted and context dependent, successfully predicting the scenario that will play out is virtually impossible. Consider as evidence that in just the last several years —during and after the COVID-19 pandemic —consensus macroeconomic forecasts have been wildly off from actual outcomes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 16, 2022 - (In the coming days, we will publish tables enumerating the specific proposals in the May Revision by program  area.) How the Governor Allocates the $52   Billion Overall General Fund Surplus. Figure  4 shows how the Governor proposes allocating the overall General Fund surplus.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4598

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - Unlike reserve deposits, which can be suspended in response to a budget emergency, Proposition  2 ‑related debt payments are required every year until 2029 ‑30. (Thereafter, these debt payments become optional, but amounts not spent on debt must be deposited into the rainy ‑day reserve.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - Importantly, these budget solutions also included a planned withdrawal from the state ’s rainy ‑day fund, the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA), of $7.1  billion. The June 2025 spending plan maintains these actions, including the reserve withdrawal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - The Governor ’s budget maintains an already planned withdrawal from the state ’s rainy day fund, which we think is a reasonable choice. Since 2023 ‑24, the Legislature has addressed a cumulative total of $82  billion in budget problems, but even including the withdrawal for 2025 ‑26, has only used about half of the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951