The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary Not Safe to Bet Artificial Intelligence ( AI) Fueled Exuberance Is Sustainable. Both the California and U.S. economies currently face significant headwinds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - Further, the state faces significant structural deficits in the future. Accordingly, any windfall received from this revenue uptick represents an opportunity for the Legislature to prepare for future fiscal challenges.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Regardless of the revenue assumption used in the 2026-27 budget, both our office and the Governor ’s Department of Finance (DOF) agree that the state faces large structural deficits. Although the strong current-year tax collections mask it, there are at least two notable indications of an underlying fiscal problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - These early decisions substantially reduced the size of the budget problem the Legislature faced this year. New Discretionary Spending Increases the Size of the Budget Problem. Most of the reason that the state faces a budget problem is that the underlying costs of state services continue to outpace the state ’s revenue collections.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements [Publication Details]

Feb 20, 2026 - Recent stock market performance continues to boost income tax collections. In our Fiscal Outlook, we strongly advised the Legislature to treat near-term strength in tax collections as temporary because we expect these gains to reverse. Further, the state faces significant structural deficits in the future.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5133

The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications

Mar 30, 2022 - If the economy does not continue to grow, the state would face budget problems due to revenue shortfalls. For this analysis we examined 10,000 possible revenue and economic scenarios. In over 95  percent of scenarios, the state faces a budget problem by 2025 ‑26 either due to constitutional spending requirements or a recession.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4583

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Due to a deteriorating revenue picture relative to expectations from June 2022, both our office and the administration anticipate the state faces a budget problem in 2023‑24.In particular, under our estimates, the Governor’s budget faced an $18 billion budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature Search In Fiscal Perspectives , the Legislative Analyst periodically offers the Legislature his views on fiscal matters facing California.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence Search In Fiscal Perspectives , the Legislative Analyst periodically offers the Legislature his views on fiscal matters facing California.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938