How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Moreover, investors have been aggressive in taking on high levels of margin debt (borrowing to buy stocks), which has reached approximately three times the historical norm. These and other indicators are at levels previously only seen at times when the market was approaching a peak before entering a period of retrenchment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - High materials prices, low interest rates that make monthly mortgage payments more affordable (all else equal), low inventory levels, and possibly the pandemic-driven shift to remote work have contributed to the price increases.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714

Home Prices Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Oct 20, 2021 - High materials prices, low interest rates that make monthly mortgage payments more affordable (all else equal), low inventory levels, and possibly the pandemic-driven shift to remote work have contributed to the price increases.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/706

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - If such changes affect company profits or employment levels in California, it would affect state and local tax revenues. Whether this woul d occur is uncertain. Summary of Major Fiscal Effects. The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - In the past, these patterns have been a sign that a stock market downturn will occur in the next couple of years. There certainly is some chance that this time is different and such a downturn is not forthcoming.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Specifically, we assess how often in the past revenues experienced a positive deviation large enough to meet or exceed the proposed level of spending (adjusted for constitutional, formula ‑driven spending).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2026-27 Budget: University of California

Feb 26, 2026 - UC Spending Has Outpaced Inflation Over Past Ten Years. As Figure   7 shows, UC ’s core spending has grown faster than inflation over the past ten years. Over this period, core spending grew at an average annual rate of 4.3   percent compared to an average annual inflation rate of 3.3   percent over the same period.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5143