California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Moreover, investors have been aggressive in taking on high levels of margin debt (borrowing to buy stocks), which has reached approximately three times the historical norm. These and other indicators are at levels previously only seen at times when the market was approaching a peak before entering a period of retrenchment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget [Publication Details]

Jan 12, 2026 - On January 9, 2026, Governor Newsom’s administration presented its proposed state budget to the California Legislature. In this report, we provide a high-level summary and our initial analysis of the Governor’s budget based on our preliminary review (as of January 10). Assembly Budget Handout (PDF) Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Handout (PDF)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - In this report, we provide a high ‑level summary and our initial analysis of the Governor ’s budget based on our preliminary review (as of January 10). In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release many additional issue ‑specific budget analyses.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook [Publication Details]

Nov 19, 2025 - Each year, our office publishes the Fiscal Outlook in anticipation of the upcoming budget season. This report gives the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state’s General Fund budget condition with the goal of helping lawmakers prepare for the 2026-27 budget process.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5091

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - The estimate of the requirement for 2024 ‑25 is up nearly $4.7  billion (4  percent) from the June 2024 level, but the budget appropriates just over $2.7  billion in additional funding for that year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416