California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - There are three reasons these actions are now critical. First, the budget problem is now larger than anticipated, despite improvements in revenue, and the structural deficits are significant and growing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - Alternatively, or in combination with the above actions, the Legislature could use windfall resources to repay budgetary borrowing undertaken in recent budgets. Although the state faces significant cost pressures due to reductions in federal funding, using one-time resources to backfill those ongoing reductions would put the state on even worse fiscal footing going forward.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - All figures in this publication reflect the administration ’s estimates of actions taken through early July 2025, however, we have updated the text to reflect actions taken later in the legislative session.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - However, the Governor ’s budget does not include material actions to address either challenge. In this report, we offer an alternative approach for the Legislature to take that would put the state on better fiscal footing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - In large part, this is because the Legislature took significant action last year to solve the budget problem anticipated for 2025-26. As a result, absent substantial changes to these estimates, the Legislature does not need to take any major additional actions this year to balance the budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983