The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Instead, our forecast includes income tax collections that are somewhat weaker than suggested by cash trends, but still tens of billions of dollars above where they would be if stocks actually drop significantly.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - However, on a cash basis, these costs would still be paid in 2025‑26 as they are incurred. Like other budget maneuvers, this creates a misalignment between the state’s cash position and its budgetary costs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk [Publication Details]

Jan 23, 2026 - In this installment of Fiscal Perspectives, the Legislative Analyst describes how the LAO’s revenue estimates represent a hedge against downside stock market risk and why—despite current cash trends—caution matters given the state’s large, ongoing structural deficit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5104

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - In this installment of Fiscal Perspectives, the Legislative Analyst describes how the LAO’s revenue estimates represent a hedge against downside stock market risk and why—despite current cash trends—caution matters given the state’s large, ongoing structural deficit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Despite Fiscal Forecasting Uncertainties, Multiyear Budget Planning Essential

May 27, 2021 - The value of doing multiyear budget estimates is evident when considering the role they can play in budget development. When developing our main forecasts, both our office and DOF make their best estimate, aiming for the median scenario.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4443

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - Employee and Employer Contributions to “Normal Cost. ” The normal cost is the amount actuaries determine must be contributed to the system in a given year to fund the benefit earned by state employees in that year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Current stock prices relative to companies ’ past earnings (a common measure of how “expensive ” stocks are) are at levels rivaled only by the transitory booms of 1999 and 2021. Furthermore, a single company (Nvidia) accounts for about one ‑third of the total gains in the S &P 500 stock index over the last year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - But since macroeconomic dynamics are multifaceted and context dependent, successfully predicting the scenario that will play out is virtually impossible. Consider as evidence that in just the last several years —during and after the COVID-19 pandemic —consensus macroeconomic forecasts have been wildly off from actual outcomes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 27, 2022 - The budget expands the state ’s existing Young Child Tax Credit (YCTC) to families with no earnings. Previously, the YCTC provided an additional $1,000 refundable tax credit to most families who qualify for the state ’s Earned Income Tax Credit (or CalEITC) who also have children under the age of 6.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4626