Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Incomplete tax collections data in April could contribute to a substantially larger revenue forecast error. If the budget were inadvertently built upon overestimated revenues, chances become greater that midyear corrective budget adjustments will be necessary.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2021-22 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Aug 30, 2021 - Both of these components are subject to estimate error, particularly for the budget year, and therefore change throughout the budget process. For example, the limit itself is based on estimates of personal income and population growth, which change based on economic an d other conditions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4449

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Further, budget deficits are highly influenced by estimation error and our method abstracts away from these year‑by‑year particularities. Overall, we would describe funding shortfalls, as measured in this report, as considerably smaller than budget deficits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Sep 30, 2022 - Both of these components are subject to estimate error, particularly for the budget year, and therefore change throughout the budget process. For example, the limit itself is based on estimates of personal income and population growth, which change based on economic and other conditi ons.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4631

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - Our annual Fiscal Outlook publication gives our office’s independent assessment of the California state budget condition for the upcoming fiscal year and over the longer term. In this report, we anticipate the state will have a $24 billion budget problem to solve in the upcoming fiscal year and operating deficits declining from $17 billion to $8 billion over the multiyear period.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4646