California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Despite our view that there is a strong possibility of a market downturn, however, our revenue forecast does not assume one will occur. Rather, we ’ve incorporated the elevated risk of a downturn into our estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2023-24 Budget: State and Federal One-Time K-12 Funding

Mar 10, 2023 - The 2023-24 Budget: State and Federal One-Time K-12 Funding The 2023-24 Budget State and Federal One-Time K-12 Funding In recent years, schools have received significant one-time state and federal funding to address a variety of issues, including the effects of learning loss and higher costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4734

Recent Trends in Young Adult Mortality

Dec 10, 2024 - One of the major factors driving the overdose trend has been the growing presence of fentanyl in California ’s illicit opioid  markets. Extreme speeding and other risky driving behaviors likely have played significant roles in the trend in motor vehicle deaths.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4945

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Insurance regulation. [Ballot]

Sep 30, 2025 - These rules say automobile insurance rates must be based primarily on three factors: (1) the driver ’s safety record, (2) how much they drive each year, and (3) the number of years they have been driving.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-012

Update: Tech Company Equity Pay Driving Withholding in 2024 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 20, 2024 - Our best assessment is that one-third to one-half of this growth can be attributed to growing equity withholding over the same period.    
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/815

Update: Tech Company Equity Pay Driving Withholding in 2024 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 20, 2024 - Our best assessment is that one-third to one-half of this growth can be attributed to growing equity withholding over the same period.    
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/815

The 2022-23 Budget: Supply Chain and Port Infrastructure Proposals

Feb 15, 2022 - For example, in the short term, one ‑time funding for additional commercial drive tests through overtime, as proposed by the Governor, would address the pandemic ‑related increased demand for these licenses needed for commercial trucking in the budget year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4540

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714