The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - For example, we recommend the Legislature: Do Not Suspend the $3  Billion True Up Into the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). The Governor ’s budget proposes suspending a roughly $3  billion true-up deposit that otherwise would be required in 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - To do this, we add a stock market indicator to our forecast models alongside other the economic variables. The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - When cost changes do not occur automatically under current policy, we classify them as either budget solutions or discretionary augmentations. Budget Package Addressed a Nearly $15   Billion Budget Problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2023-24 Budget: Considering Inflation's Effects on State Programs

Nov 16, 2022 - We do not think that all —or even more —programs should have automatic adjustments or more statutory authority for administrative discretion. Doing so would reduce the Legislature ’s discretion over state spending.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4647

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - There are many options for doing this, but given the volatility in the state ’s revenues, we think it is important to set aside much more funds in years when revenues are surging , rather than setting aside somewhat more in every year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2021-22 Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 23, 2021 - Eligible businesses include those that organize, promote, produce, or host live concerts, comedy shows, sporting events, and theater productio ns. In addition, these businesses must show that their revenues declined by at least 70  percent following the onset of the pandemic.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4452

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Second, while our revenue estimates hedge against a market downturn, they do not reflect the revenue declines the state would experience in a recession. Third, the state has used most of its budget resiliency tools to address prior deficits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - The state could reform th e underlying tax structure to make it less volatile, which nearly certainly would involve reducing tax rates for higher ‑income earners. Or, the state could address volatility by building reserves —funds that can be saved during upswings and spent during downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - Although aligning revenue estimates might reduce the potential for confusion, doing so would risk creating bigger problems. In particular, it could provide a false sense of certainty about the state ’s fiscal position.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - The Legislature could do this by identifying issues, policies, and programs that have been key areas of attention in recent years. The affected departments likely have had less capacity for other responsibilities during that time.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983