How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Smaller, short-lived corrections occur frequently, among them the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 2011 U.S. debt celing standoff, the 2015 Chinese growth slowdown, the early pandemic drop in 2020, and the 2025 tariff selloff.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Smaller, short-lived corrections occur frequently, among them the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 2011 U.S. debt celing standoff, the 2015 Chinese growth slowdown, the early pandemic drop in 2020, and the 2025 tariff selloff.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - The next figure shows a sharp slowdown in California month to month home price growth over the past 3 months. The October state growth rate of 0.70 percent was the lowest since July 2020, if still high by historical standards.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714

Home Prices Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Oct 20, 2021 - September 2021 data again show torrid growth in home prices in both California and the rest of the country over the past year: the typical home in California has appreciated 21.8 percent since September 2020, well above the national figure of 18.4 percent.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/706

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

2022-23 Fiscal Outlook Revenue Estimates [EconTax Blog]

Nov 17, 2021 - Whereas revenues grew over 30 percent in 2020-21, our main forecast has growth drop to 8 percent in 2021-22, fall further to about 2 percent in 2022-23, and then becomes slightly negative in 202 3-24.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/712

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Figure 3 General Fund Condition Under Fiscal Outlook (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Revenues increased by nearly 30 percent in 2020-21 and another 20 percent in 2021-22. In the course of allocating the historically large surpluses generated by the revenue surge, General Fund spending increased commensurately.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 13, 2023 - In the last 30 years, comparable two-quarter declines have occurred only around the Dot-Com Recession and the Great Recession. Similarly, income tax withholding (the largest component of income tax collections) has declined 5 percent so far this year, a stark departure from the double digit growth of the preceding two years.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/774