The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - However, we have found the term cost shift is unclear for many readers and, as a result, can obscure the fiscal implications of these actions. Accordingly, we have adopted terminology that more transparently reflects the underlying natur e of these budget solutions, if not always their precise  mechanics.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - (Many other factors also will affect the actual size of the budget problem.) That  said, after adjusting for inflation, anticipated revenues for 2023 ‑24 still would remain about 20  percent higher than before the pandemic.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Despite Fiscal Forecasting Uncertainties, Multiyear Budget Planning Essential

May 27, 2021 - Many times, such surpluses or deficits are one time and not indicative of the state ’s structural budget condition. Moreover, many programmatic initiatives take effect in January —midway through the fiscal year —or take several years to be fully implemented.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4443

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release many additional issue ‑specific budget analyses. Governor’s Budget Roughly Balanced on Higher Revenues In November, We Anticipated the State Faced an $18   Billion Deficit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - As it stands —with larger forecasted deficits and many fewer tools available to address them —California ’s budget is undeniably less prepared for downturns. Introduction Each year, our office publishes the Fiscal Outlook in anticipation of the upcoming budget season.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - We suggest the Legislature take heed of these risks and avoid putting too much stock in the recent revenue rebound until it is accompanied by clear improvements in California ’s broader economy. Governor ’s Use of Reserves Remains Reasonable.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Given that many IPOs in recent years have been among technology-related firms, the ongoing slowdown in that sector combined with more restrictive access to credit going forward is cautionary. If the economy enters a recession, the possibility of a sharp downward revision to revenue estimates —we have estimated by as much as $30  billion to $50   billion —cannot be dismissed.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938