California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The State Appropriations Limit Introduction In the late 1970s, voters passed Proposition  4 (1979), which added Article XIIIB to the State Constitution. Article XIIIB established an appropriations limit on the state and most types of local governments.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - That is: the state will face revenue downturns in the future, but we can ’t predict when those will occur or how big they will be. This makes the state ’s reserve policy more like an individual saving for retirement.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2021-22 Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 23, 2021 - For t he new program, known as the Community Economic Resilience Fund, program requirements and grant evaluations will be decided jointly by the Governor ’s Office of Planning and Research, LWDA, and the Governor ’s Office of Business Development.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4452

The 2021-22 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Aug 30, 2021 - The 2021-22 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit The 2021-22 California Spending Plan The State Appropriations Limit In the late 1970s, voters passed Proposition  4 (1979), which added Article XIIIB to the State Constitution.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4449

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 27, 2022 - Consequently, extending California Competes will have only a small short-term fiscal impac t but will reduce state tax revenues by unknown, but significant amounts, in years outside the budget window.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4626