How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

October Tax Collections [EconTax Blog]

Nov 17, 2022 - The October variance instead arises from a timing issue related to the newly created   elective pass-through entity (PTE) tax . The administration anticipated a large amount of income tax refunds ($9.7 billion) would be paid in October, related to delayed claiming of credits for elective PTE payments for tax year 2021.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/761

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog] Home Price Update: October 2021 November 18, 2021 Brian Uhler Home prices are important to the California economy for a number of reasons. In the short and medium terms, home price increases often drive construction activity, which in turn spurs employment growth in a wide range of sectors.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714

Home Prices Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Oct 20, 2021 - Home Prices Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog] Home Prices Update: September 2021 October 20, 2021 Brian Uhler Home prices are important to the California economy for a number of reasons. In the short and medium terms, home price increases often drive construction activity, which in turn spurs employment growth in a wide range of sectors.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/706

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 10, 2021 - The Governor proposes to pay down $8.4  billion of this amount, with districts receiving the associated cash in 2021 ‑22. Slightly more than $4  billion would remain deferred from 2021 ‑22 to 2022 ‑23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4309

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 13, 2023 - Across 2021-22 to 2023-24, our estimates of big three revenues are $11 billion lower than the administration ’s May Revision estimates. As such, while we consider the May Revision revenues plausible, adopting them would present considerable downside risk.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/774