California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature amended existing Control Section 5.25 and also added Control Section 5.26 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act , providing a total of up to $50  million one ‑time General Fund for legal and administrative activities that address federal actions impacting the state.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Some of the largest spending augmentations proposed for the budget window include: (1) $76 million for utility replacement and site improvements at Exposition Park, (2) $67 million to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection for fixed‑wing aircraft pilot and mechanics contract increases, (3) $60 million to the Department of Health Care Access and Information for a reproductive
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - We put forward two recommendations to improve reserve policy: Raise the Reserve Cap to 50   Percent by 2055. We first recommend the cap on constitutional reserve deposits be raised from 10  percent to 50  percent of General Fund taxes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The stock market (S &P 500) has risen 50  percent in the last two years. Most of these gains come from the meteoric rise in the value of a handful of tech companies that investors believe will be major beneficiaries of recent advances in AI.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - Across the budget window, the state would need to make required BSA deposits of $7.6  billion, which has three components: $1  Billion True Up for 2019 ‑20. Under the administration ’s revenue estimates, the state would need to make a true up deposit of $1  billion in 2019 ‑20.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - Note: Includes augmentations above $50 million BCSH = Secretary for Business, Consumer Services, and Housing Agency and HCD = Department of Housing and Community Development. Appendix 4, Figure 5 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Other General Fund (In millions) Broadband infrastructure —last ‑mile
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2021-22 Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 23, 2021 - In September 2020, the Legislature instituted the Main Street Small Business Tax Credit, which provides income or sales tax credits to firms with 100 or fewer employees that added jobs in the second half of 2020.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4452