California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This is about $5  billion larger than the budget problem anticipated by the administration in June. Figure  3 provides our estimates of the General Fund condition, including our estimate of the budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - The Governor ’s budget also maintains a $7  billion withdrawal from the BSA in 2025-26. If a May Revision windfall exceeds the amount needed to fund the true up, we recommend the Legislature use those resources to reduce the size of this withdrawal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Figure  7 shows states ’ rainy day funds as a share of total spending in 2024. On this measure, California ’s reserves rank 29 out of 50. (In fact, Figure  7 likely overstates California ’s reserve balances compared to other states because the data appears to include the SFEU in the state ’s rainy day fund balances, although it is not a true rainy day fund.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

Overview of Major Impacts of H.R. 1 – One Big Beautiful Bill Act [Publication Details]

Aug 20, 2025 - Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 7 on Accountability and Oversight
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5067

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - Specifically, our revenue estimates exceed the administration ’s estimates by $5  billion to $7  billion annually from 2026-27 to 2028-29 —differences we consider very minor given the size of the budget and uncertainty in revenue forecasting.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - Specifically, our estimates of spending (excluding spending on schools and community colleges) are about $5  billion lower in 2025 ‑26, $4  billion lower in 2026 ‑27, and $3  billion lower in 2027 ‑28.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416