California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - Figure 1 The State ’s New Wall of Debt (In Billions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - Middle Class Scholarships (MCS) Arrears Budgeting ($1 Billion). The budget package reflects $1 billion in savings by deferring recognition of MCS program costs from 2025‑26 to 2026‑27 on a budgetary basis.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - This includes proposals to: (1)  remove the state ’s share of costs associated with growth in IHSS hours per case, which we estimate could save $650  million by 2029 ‑30 (if hours continue to grow at their current rates); (2)  make an ongoing reduction to the Middle Class Scholarship program, which generates $541  million in savings beginning in 2027 ‑28; and (3)  make $12  million in previously provided ongoing federal ‑related litigation funding limited term.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - The May Revision reduces planned base cuts from 7.95  percent, as agreed to in last year ’s budget, to 3  percent. This change increases ongoing General Fund costs by $267  million for UC and $231  million for CSU.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Figure 3 General Fund Condition Under Fiscal Outlook (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2021-22 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Aug 30, 2021 - Specifically, the spending must be: (1)  related to an emergency declaration by the Governor, (2)  approved by a two-thirds vote of the Legislature, and (3)  dedicated to an account for expenditures relating to that emergency.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4449

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Throughout this period, as shown on the right side of Figure  3, the SFEU balance was generally enacted around 1  percent to 3  percent of revenues —very small compared to the reserves and surpluses of the decades before.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - Some of the largest spending augmentations proposed include: (1) $60  million to provide additional grants under the Cal Competes program; (2)  the intent to partially restore an ongoing reduction to the trial courts, which, if enacted, would cost $42  million ongoing; and (3)  the Governor ’s proposed expansion to College Corps, which would cost $5  million in 2025 ‑26, but grow to $84  million  ongoing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951