Why Has Income Tax Withholding Lagged, Despite Job Growth? [EconTax Blog]

Nov 16, 2022 - (At this point last year, tax withholding was up 23 percent above the prior year.)  However, as shown in the figure below, income tax withholding is far below the historical relationship between withholding and job growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/759

Immunology and immunotherapy. [Ballot]

Dec 17, 2025 - Since the state has to pay interest on the money it borrows, the total cost of the bond would be about 10 percent more (after adjusting for inflation) than if the state paid up front with money it already has.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-026

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Instead, much of the bounce appears to be tied to special forms of pay for high ‑income workers, such as bonuses and stock  compensation. Booming Stock Market Driving Income Growth. The recent run ‑up in the stock market, which appears tied to optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, is a primary driver of the rapid growth in pay to high ‑income workers.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Updating the California Necessities Index

Aug 14, 2025 - Further, the difference between the CNI and the CA CPI ‑U and CA CPI ‑W is often large. Figure  2 shows differences between the proposed measures in each year since 1978. In about half of years, the CNI differed from the CA CPI ‑U and the CA CPI ‑W by at least 1  percentage point.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5065

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - Civil penalties on covered co mpanies may be assessed as a percentage of annual gross revenue, beginning at 5 percent for initial violations and increasing to as much as 100 percent for violations that remain u ncured over specified time periods.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

California New Car Registrations: January 2026 [EconTax Blog]

Mar 11, 2026 - After growing just 0.3 percent from December to January, registrations are still 5 percent below the average level over the last couple of years. This multi-month slump could be a worrisome sign for California ’s short-term economic trajectory.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/853

California New Car Registrations: January 2026 [EconTax Blog]

Mar 11, 2026 - After growing just 0.3 percent from December to January, registrations are still 5 percent below the average level over the last couple of years. This multi-month slump could be a worrisome sign for California ’s short-term economic trajectory.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/853

Personal income tax rates for high-income taxpayers. [Ballot]

Oct 20, 2025 - Fiscal Effects Measure Would Bring in Between $5  Billion and $15  Billion Each Year. The amount of money brought in by this measure is hard to predict and will go up and down with the economy. This is because much of the revenue comes from taxing investment income and capital gains.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-016

The 2026-27 Budget: Supplemental Security Income/State Supplementary Payment (SSI/SSP) Program

Mar 3, 2026 - Estimates of federal poverty guidelines for 2027 are based on the LAO Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI ‑U) projection. The 2027 federal poverty guidelines will not be finalized until fall 2026.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5148

How Does the October Inflation Report Change Our Outlook? [EconTax Blog]

Nov 16, 2022 - The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased at an annual rate of 5.3 percent in October, compared to 7.7 percent over the last year. Similarly, “core” inflation (CPI-U excluding food and energy prices) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in October, compared to 6.3 percent over the last year.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/760