Despite Fiscal Forecasting Uncertainties, Multiyear Budget Planning Essential

May 27, 2021 - What do the new multiyear estimates tell us? For one, they suggest the Governor ’s emphasis on one-time spending is appropriate. Of the large $38 billion discretionary surplus at the May Revision, we estimate that the Governor initially would allocate just $2 billion for new ongoing purposes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4443

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - These analyses allow us to evaluate two key questions that come to mind in light of the current period of high inflation. First, what is the main channel through which high inflation affects the state’s budget condition?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - On an analytical basis, there is nothing inherently correct about this time frame, except that it is long enough to allow us to measure the cumulative effect of several economic cycles. Predicting the exact path revenues will take over the next 50  years is, of course, impossible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - This allows us to assess how likely it is that revenues could be high enough to support the proposed spending. Specifically, we assess how often in the past revenues experienced a positive deviation large enough to meet or exceed the proposed level of spending (adjusted for constitutional, formula ‑driven spending).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - For example, it requires us to project how caseload will change for means ‑tested programs, estimate how much federal funding will come to the state based on current federal policy, and make many other assessments.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4646

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 10, 2021 - To date, the administration has not provided us with the details of this proposal. Early Action Proposals. The Governor proposes over a dozen proposals costing $7.8  billion that he is asking the Legislature to pass in the early spring.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4309