California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Given that this deficit is estimated to range from $20  billion to $35  billion in the years ahead, addressing it gradually, rather than all at once, reduces fiscal disruption and more readily provides for legislative input and flexibility.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget [Publication Details]

Jan 1, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only. The LAO is unable to guarantee the accuracy of this translation and is therefore not liable for any inaccurate information resulting from the translation application tool.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5107

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Under those projections, the state faces operating deficits of $9 billion in 2024‑25, $9 billion in 2025‑26, and $4 billion in 2026‑27. Because of the state’s constitutional spending requirements, revenues would need to be higher by more than these amounts for the state to be able to afford the spending level currently proposed.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Both our office and the administration expect the state to face multiyear deficits, with estimates ranging from $20  billion to $35  billion annually. These deficits are concerning for three reasons.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget [Publication Details]

Jan 12, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements The 2026-27 Budget How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements Recent stock market performance continues to boost income tax collections. In our Fiscal Outlook , we strongly advised the Legislature to treat near-term strength in tax collections as temporary because we expect these gains to reverse.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements [Publication Details]

Feb 20, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5133

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - The operating deficits under our forecast are slightly larger —ranging from $14  billion to $20   billion —compared to those under the administration ’s forecast —ranging from $14  billion to $17  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772