California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - Cengiz, Doruk, Arindrajit Dube, Attila Lindner, and Ben Zipperer (2019). “The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs. ” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 134(3). Clemens, Austin, Kavya Vaghul, John Schmitt, and Will McGrew (2019).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/3

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - We apply this method to monthly CPS data from January 2022 through December 2023 to construct the estimates that appear in Figures 3 through 7 in the post Is California’s Minimum Wage High, Low, or Somewhere in Between?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/4

Disabled Veteran Business Enterprise Program Review

Dec 2, 2025 - Since the passage of Chapter  730 of 2022 (A B  2019 , Brough), OSDS must establish and take remedial actions when state entities have failed to meet their DVBE participation goals in three of five prior years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5095

The 2026-27 Budget: Judicial Branch

Feb 11, 2026 - Figure 3 Status of Trial Court Construction Projects Beginning  in 2019 ‑20 a Priority Group Estimated Project Costs (in Billions) Number Initiated
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5113

2022-23 Fiscal Outlook Revenue Estimates [EconTax Blog]

Nov 17, 2021 - Whereas revenues grew over 30 percent in 2020-21, our main forecast has growth drop to 8 percent in 2021-22, fall further to about 2 percent in 2022-23, and then becomes slightly negative in 202 3-24.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/712

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - Figure  3 shows that most low-wage workers live in households without any children under 18. Roughly 20  percent live with one child, 15  percent with two children, and fewer than 10  percent with three or more children.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/1

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - As shown in Figure  3, our estimates suggest that the share of workers in low-wage jobs declines by more than one-third between the ages of 25 and 32. This decline suggests that a substantial share of workers spend just a handful of years in low-wage jobs before moving on to mid-to-high-wage jobs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/2