California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Throughout the mid-to-late 1990s, the stock market boomed over optimism around the Internet and dot-com start-ups. Strong tax revenue trends from this boom generated large budget surpluses that ultimately gave way to serious deficits once the bubble burst and PIT revenues declined nearly 30  percent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Consumers also continue to report historically low optimism about the economy ’s future. Consistent with these trends, collections from the sales tax and corporation tax (adjusted for recent policy changes) have posted below ‑average growth in recent months.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - The recent run ‑up in the stock market, which appears tied to optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, is a primary driver of the rapid growth in pay to high ‑income workers. Stock compensation has become an increasingly important form of pay among California ’s high ‑income workers, especially those at major technology companies.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence Search In Fiscal Perspectives , the Legislative Analyst periodically offers the Legislature his views on fiscal matters facing California.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2013-14 Budget: Overview of the May Revision - Press Conference Question and Answer [Video]

The 2013-14 Budget: Overview of the May Revision - Press Conference Question and Answer [Video] Search LAO Videos The 2013-14 Budget: Overview of the May Revision May 17, 2013 California Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor discusses his office 's report "The 2013-14 Budget: Overview of the May Revision " with the news media.
https://lao.ca.gov/Videos/Player?playlistId=17&videoId=24

The 2010-11 Budget: Overview of the May Revision - Press Conference Question and Answer [Video]

The 2010-11 Budget: Overview of the May Revision - Press Conference Question and Answer [Video] Search LAO Videos The 2010-11 Budget: Overview of the May Revision May 18, 2010 Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor 's press conference in which he discusses the LAO report The 2010-11 Budget: Overview of the May Revision .
https://lao.ca.gov/Videos/Player?playlistId=7&videoId=96