California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Highlights of the 2007-08 Analysis and Perspectives and Issues [Publication Details]

Feb 21, 2007 - Highlights of the 2007-08 Analysis and Perspectives and Issues [Publication Details] Description: This document summarizes and provides links to the major findings in the 2007-08 Analysis of the Budget Bill and Perspectives and Issues.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/1554

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 5, 2016 - Trailer legislation also specifies legislative intent to link the RMR to the 85th  percentile of the most recent market survey based on available funding. Slots Budget Package Increases Funding for State Preschool Slots.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3487/4

An Extraordinary Moment in California's Fiscal History

Apr 11, 2019 - Again, while there are good arguments in favor of both proposals, apart from both affecting the state tax code, we see no inherent policy reason for why they should be linked. Finally, we recommend that the Legislature reject some of the Governor ’s proposals.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4003

The 2019-20 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 14, 2019 - The Legislature, however, might consider more targeted initiatives linked with specific goals. For example, it could link any one ‑time workforce funding to helping with a transition to a new child care reimbursement rate system and/or higher minimum program standards.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3916

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687