How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Once the stock market drops, revenue growth   first slows, then stalls, then turns negative. The dot-com example below illustrates this pattern. In practice, this means the state could see continued but weakened revenue growth for some time after a correction before the outlook turns clearly negative.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Once the stock market drops, revenue growth   first slows, then stalls, then turns negative. The dot-com example below illustrates this pattern. In practice, this means the state could see continued but weakened revenue growth for some time after a correction before the outlook turns clearly negative.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - To do this, we add a stock market indicator to our forecast models alongside other the economic variables. The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: County Administration and H.R. 1 Implementation

Mar 5, 2026 - What role do county policies and processes and the design and operation of automation and data systems play in determining the state ’s error rates in each program? Do some counties have significantly higher or lower error rates than others and are there practices or other circumstances that contribute to this  variation?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5149

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis

Mar 2, 2026 - Although H.R. 1 does not require states to apply the community engagement requirement and six ‑month renewals to adults with UIS (whose Medi ‑Cal full scope coverage is entirely state ‑funded), the administration proposes to do so.  
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5146

The 2026-27 Budget: Department of Developmental Services

Mar 13, 2026 - The department has stated that its goal is to have as many providers as possible earn the quality payments, but it has not yet discussed how it might approach circumstances in which providers do not achieve them.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5157

Assessing a Shift to Enrollment-Based School Funding

Jan 6, 2026 - If  LEAs were funded based on enrollment, they would receive funding regardless of how much independent study students participate in instruction and complete work. LEAs are currently required to establish procedures for reengaging with students who are not regularly attending or completing work.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5100

The 2026-27 Budget: County Administration and H.R. 1 Implementation [Publication Details]

Mar 5, 2026 - In this brief, we assess the Governor's proposed funding for county administration of Medi-Cal and CalFresh in response to H.R. 1 and provide related recommendations.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5149

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis [Publication Details]

Mar 2, 2026 - In this report, we analyze the Governor’s budget for Medi-Cal, with a focus on base spending trends, changes to provider taxes, implementation of new H.R. 1 rules, oversight over enacted budget solutions, and considerations for identifying additional savings in Medi-Cal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5146

The 2026-27 Budget: Governor’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Tax Credit Proposal

Feb 24, 2026 - Reducing Diesel Excise Tax Revenues Would Negatively Impact Transportation Programs. While the size of the revenue losses from the Governor ’s proposed tax credit is somewhat uncertain, they have the potential for negative impacts on transportation programs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5139