California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - While the Governor ’s budget describes the financial markets as a leading risk to the budget and assumes that stock market appreciation slows, it does not explicitly factor the risk of a market downturn into its revenue estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: In-Home Supportive Services

Mar 18, 2026 - Taken Together, These Cost Drivers Account for Much of the Growth Overall, IHSS Cost Growth Can Be Attributed to Three Main Factors. IHSS costs can be largely attributed to three primary factors: caseload, cost per hour, and hours per case.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5166

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - Program staff must weigh these possibly competing factors, and the high recapture rate cou ld indicate a relative favoring of high-risk, high-rewards projects. In years where the program is fully subscribed, there is an opportunity cost associated with an agreement that is not fulfilled.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

Addressing Chronic Vacancies in Prison Mental Health Care

Feb 23, 2026 - Given the importance of non ‑compensation factors in determining vacancy rates, it is unclear what level of pay increase would be needed to meaningfully improve recruitment and retention for mental health positions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5134

District Pension Contribution Rates and Amounts [EdBudget]

Feb 14, 2026 - Rates and amounts for 2026-27 and subsequent years will be updated based on actual teacher payroll and investment returns, among other factors. b Contribution amounts are for CalSTRS' Defined Benefit Program and are LAO estimates based on creditable compensation.
https://lao.ca.gov/Education/EdBudget/Details/1059

The 2026-27 Budget: Food Assistance Programs

Feb 18, 2026 - In general, payment errors are caused by many factors. Rules for determining CalFresh eligibility and calculating benefit amounts are comp lex. CalFresh recipients sometimes provide incomplete or inaccurate information needed to correctly calculate benefits, often unintentionally.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5126

The 2026-27 Budget: California Community Colleges

Mar 5, 2026 - This is largely because these funding protections provide districts with more apportionment funding than they would generate based on their enrollment and other  factors. Systemwide Reserves Continue to Increase.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5150