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December 7, 2010 - On December 6, 2010, Governor Schwarzenegger declared a fiscal emergency and called the new Legislature into special session to address the anticipated 2010‑11 General Fund deficit—estimated by our office at $6.1 billion. The Governor’s special session proposals would decrease the gap between General Fund revenues and expenditures by $1.9 billion in 2010‑11 and by $8 million in 2011‑12, thereby reducing the $25.4 billion budget problem that we have identified to $15.5 billion. The Governor's proposals consist of $7.4 billion of expenditure-related reductions and two major revenue proposals. Essentially all of these proposals were rejected earlier this year by the prior Legislature. The Governor also proposes to transfer vehicle weight fee revenues to the General Fund. This would achieve an estimated $850 million in budget solutions in 2010‑11 and $727 million in 2011‑12 by reimbursing the General Fund with weight fee revenues for certain transportation bond debt service costs, and also loaning a portion of the weight fee revenues to the General Fund. Under the proposal, the fuel tax revenues that would have helped the General Fund prior to Proposition 22 would now be available for transportation programs.
November 10, 2010 - Three short webcasts summarizing our 2011-12 Fiscal Outlook publication. Includes: (1) Overview, (2) Revenue and Economic Outlook, and (3) Proposition 98.
November 10, 2010 - Our forecast of California’s General Fund revenues and expenditures shows that the state must address a budget problem of $25.4 billion between now and the time the Legislature enacts a 2011‑12 state budget plan. The budget problem consists of a $6 billion projected deficit for 2010‑11 and a $19 billion gap between projected revenues and spending in 2011‑12. Similar to our forecast of one year ago, we project annual budget problems of about $20 billion each year through 2015‑16. We continue to recommend that the Legislature initiate a multiyear approach to solving California’s recurring structural budget deficit. In 2011‑12, such an approach might involve $10 billion of permanent revenue and expenditure actions and $15 billion of temporary budget solutions. In 2012‑13, 2013‑14, and 2014‑15, another few billion of permanent actions each year could be initiated, along with other temporary budget solutions, and so on until the structural deficit was eliminated.
November 4, 2010 - The 2010–11 state spending plan includes total budget expenditures of $117.4 billion from the General Fund and special funds. This consists of $86.6 billion from the General Fund and $30.9 billion from special funds. While this level of budgeted General Fund spending is far below the $103 billion recorded in 2007–08, it is $203 million—0.2 percent—higher than in 2009–10. Spending from special funds, however, is budgeted to be $7.5 billion—32.3 percent—higher than in 2010–11, driven mainly by recent changes in Medi–Cal and transportation funding that were enacted in part to offset costs in the General Fund. In addition, the budget assumes spending from bond funds of about $8 billion as the state continues to allocate moneys from the $43 billion bond package approved at the November 2006 election. The budget plan (including gubernatorial vetoes) includes the following actions: $7.8 billion of expenditure–related solutions; $5.4 billion of new federal funding; and $3.3 billion of revenue actions.
June 4, 2010 - Presented to The Conference Committee on the Budget
June 4, 2010 - Presented to Conference Committee on the Budget by Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor. Provides a historical perspective on the economy, revenues and General Fund expenditures.
May 18, 2010 - Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor's press conference in which he discusses the LAO report "The 2010-11 Budget: Overview of the May Revision."
May 18, 2010 -
In the May Revision, the administration identifies a $17.9 billion gap between current-law resources and expenditures in California's 2010-11 General Fund budget. This estimate is reasonable. In addressing the shortfall, the Legislature should reject the Governor's most drastic spending cuts, especially his proposed elimination of CalWORKs and child care funding. Alternative spending reductions could help sustain critical components of these core programs for the state's neediest families, and some of the Governor's most severe cuts could be avoided by adopting selected revenue increases. The report also describes the Legislature's options in deciding how much education spending the state can afford in this difficult budget year, when elected leaders also need to focus on longer-term policy changes that will better prepare California to cope with future economic downturns.
(Video of press conference)
May 10, 2010 - Presented at the Assembly Budget Committee hearing on Budget Options: Tax Structure and Tax Expenditures. May 11, 2010.
March 19, 2010 - This memo provides a high level description of our view of the state's budget situation, including comments on the economy, revenues, and expenditure trends.
February 19, 2010 - A presentation on California's budget, economic outlook, and education funding. Presented at the California County Superintendents Educational Services Association Chief Business Officials Conference in Sacramento on February 19, 2010.