December 7, 2023 - Each year, our office publishes the Fiscal Outlook in anticipation of the upcoming budget season. The goal of this report is to give the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state’s budget condition as lawmakers begin planning the 2024-25 budget.
January 13, 2024 - On January 10, 2024, Governor Newsom presented his proposed state budget to the California Legislature. In this report, we provide a brief summary of the Governor’s budget based on our initial review as of January 12. In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release many additional issue-specific budget analyses.
March 6, 2024 - Presented to: Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 4 on Climate Crisis, Resources, Energy and Transportation
February 14, 2024 - This report describes the Governor’s proposed budget solutions within climate, resources, and environmental programs, and provides the Legislature with suggestions for how it might modify the spending plan to better reflect its priorities and prepare to address a potentially larger budget problem.
February 15, 2023 - This brief provides our current assessment of the scale of the coming budget problems under the Governor’s budget proposals. We also provide our guidance to the Legislature about how to address these shortfalls given current economic conditions.
January 30, 2024 - In this brief, we provide an overview and initial analysis of the Governor’s higher education budget plan.
February 28, 2024 - In this brief, we analyze the Governor’s budget proposals for the University of California (UC). We have sections focusing on UC’s core operations and enrollment. We also revisit recent UC one-time initiatives and capital projects the state had funded.
February 14, 2024 - This brief provides an overview of the Governor’s proposed budget for Medi-Cal; describes key trends in Medi-Cal caseload; and analyzes proposals around the managed care organization tax, provider payment increases, and other budget solutions.
May 23, 2023 - This brief presents our office’s independent assessment of the condition of the state General Fund budget through 2026‑27 under our forecast of revenues and spending, assuming the Governor’s May Revision policies were adopted.
February 22, 2023 -
This report describes the Governor’s proposed budget solutions within climate, resources, and environmental programs, and provides the Legislature with a framework and suggestions for how it might modify those proposals to better reflect its priorities and prepare to address a potentially larger budget problem.
Correction (4/27/23): The amounts in Figure 1 for Wildfire and Forest Resilience and Nature-Based Activities and Extreme Heat have been corrected.
November 16, 2022 - Our annual Fiscal Outlook publication gives our office’s independent assessment of the California state budget condition for the upcoming fiscal year and over the longer term. In this report, we anticipate the state will have a $24 billion budget problem to solve in the upcoming fiscal year and operating deficits declining from $17 billion to $8 billion over the multiyear period. The goal of this report is to help the Legislature begin crafting the 2023‑24 budget. Our analysis relies on specific assumptions about the future of the state economy, its revenues, and its expenditures. Consequently, our estimates are not definitive, but rather reflect our best guidance to the Legislature based on our professional assessments as of November 2022.
Update (11/22/22): The original version of this report identified a $25 billion—instead of a $24 billion—budget problem, which reflected an error in the way we accounted for student housing grant program funding.
March 30, 2022 - This brief estimates the condition of the budget over the multiyear taking state appropriations limit requirements into consideration.
May 24, 2022 - This brief presents our office’s independent assessment of the condition of the state General Fund budget through 2025-26 under our forecast of revenues and spending, assuming the Governor’s May Revision policies were adopted.
February 15, 2024 - In this brief, we evaluate the Governor’s novel proposal to allow schools to keep $8 billion of cash disbursements above the minimum requirement without recognizing the budgetary impact of those payments.
February 13, 2023 - In response to the multibillion-dollar budget problem the state is facing, the Governor’s budget proposes $4 billion in multiyear budget solutions from the recent General Fund augmentations provided to transportation programs. In this brief we (1) provide background on the recent funding augmentations in transportation from both state and federal funds; (2) describe the Governor’s proposed transportation budget solutions; (3) discuss our assessment of the Governor’s proposals; and (4) offer recommendations for how the Legislature could craft its own package of solutions, including suggestions for potential additional reductions should the budget condition make them necessary.