Fiscal Outlook: Key Economic Assumptions [EconTax Blog]

Nov 20, 2019 - (The outlook also discusses how state revenues would perform in a hypothetical recession scenario.) The figure below compares our November 2019 near-term economic assumptions to those reflected in the June 2019 state budget package.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/413

The 2020-21 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2019 - We find the state has: Ongoing Surplus of $3   Billion Under Baseline Expenditure Scenario. In our baseline expenditure scenario, we find the state has an ongoing surplus of around $ 3  b illion. Importantly, this scenario assumes the federal government approves the managed care organization (MCO) tax and the state faces no major disasters over the next few years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4111

The 2020-21 Budget: The Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 20, 2019 - Using one ‑time funding to pay down districts ’ pension liabilities more quickly would be particularly beneficial, as these payments would improve the funding status of the pension systems and likely reduce district costs on a sustained basis.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4113

The 2020-21 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2019 - The 2020-21 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook California’s Fiscal Outlook Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook Medi-Cal, the state ’s Medicaid program, provides health care coverage to about 13  million of the state ’s low-income residents.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4116

The 2020-21 Budget: Debt Service on Infrastructure Bonds

Nov 20, 2019 - This decline in the DSR occurred for a variety of reasons, including rebounding General Fund revenues, refinancing of existing debt due to low interest rates, and state policies shifting some state debt costs from the General Fund to special funds —such as in transportation.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4118

The 2020-21 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook [Publication Details]

Nov 20, 2019 - The 2020-21 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook [Publication Details] The 2020-21 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Format: HTML Description: The annual Fiscal Outlook publication gives our office’s independent assessment of the California state budget condition for the upcoming fiscal year and over the longer term.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4111

The 2020-21 Budget: The Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges [Publication Details]

Nov 20, 2019 - This report examines how the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee might change over the coming years. The report has five parts. First, we explain the formulas that determine the minimum guarantee. We then explain how our estimates of Proposition 98 funding in 2018‑19 and 2019‑20 differ from the estimates included in the June 2019 budget plan. Next, we estimate the 2020‑21 guarantee.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4113

Unemployment Claims Update: October 2019 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 19, 2019 - Source: United States Department of Labor with LAO calculations  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/415

October 2019 Jobs Report [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2019 - While the state ’s job market saw broad-based growth in October, the high-paying information and professional/technical services sectors (which together include most of the state ’s tech firms) both lost jobs.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/411

Medical Malpractice Cases [Ballot]

Nov 15, 2019 - State Trial Court Costs. This measure could potentially increase the number of medical malpractice cases and thereby increase costs for state trial courts. It could also potentially increase the length of cases, which would increase costs for state trial courts as well.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2019-018